The Future of Children, Princeton - Brookings: Providing research and analysis to promote effective policies and programs for children.

Although most agree that the numbers of homeless families and children have increased dramatically since the late 1970s, no data provide consistent estimates of the number of literally homeless families over time.²⁴ Similarly, no data directly measure trends in the number of families with children that are doubled up or otherwise precariously housed. However, past studies have shown that homeless families with children tend to be headed by single parents who are very poor, and time series data are available on these families.²⁵ These data can be used to infer trends in the number of precariously housed families with children and families at risk for literal homelessness. Figure 3 shows the number of households headed by single parents with incomes below 51% of the poverty level between 1974 and 1991. These estimates were constructed by Peter Rossi from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of households in the United States.²⁶ Because the CPS includes only the population living in non-institutional housing units, some literally homeless families, such as those living in shelters, are not included in these estimates while other literally homeless families, such as those living in welfare hotels, may be included. Most doubled-up families would be included in this data series.²⁷

As shown in Figure 3, the number of households headed by single parents with personal incomes below 51% of the poverty line rose from more than 1 million in 1974 to about 2.5 million in 1991. ²⁶ In 1991, 50% of the poverty level for a household of three was $4,996, or $425 per month.²⁸ At this income level, many of these families are probably at high risk of becoming literally homeless. It is not unreasonable, then, to expect that the number of homeless families with children increased between 1974 and 1991 in response to the 150% increase in this population of high-risk families during that time. Most of the increase in the population of single-parent families with incomes below 51% of the poverty line occurred between 1976 and 1983. In the early 1980s, attention began to focus on a "new" type of homeless population that included, for the first time since the Depression, visible numbers of women and children.²⁹ Also noteworthy is the fact that the number of families in this at-risk category has not increased substantially since the early 1980s. (The increases in 1990 and 1991 probably were related to the recession in those years. Although data for more recent years are not shown, other reports indicate that the number of families with children with incomes below the poverty level has declined since 1991 coincident with the recent economic expansion.)³⁰ Absent a clear trend in the population of families with children at risk for homelessness, it is difficult to know how much credence to give the anecdotal reports that this population has continued to increase in most recent years.³¹